Trade tensions: How Trump’s tariffs could impact US-Kazakhstan ties
On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, including Kazakhstan. The tariff rate on goods from Kazakhstan is set at 27%, the highest among Central Asian nations.
The U.S. accounts for 2.4% of Kazakhstan’s exports. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported $1.97 billion worth of goods to the U.S., primarily oil, uranium, ferroalloys and silver. Kursiv.media spoke with political analysts Daniyar Ashimbayev and Gaziz Abishev to assess the potential impact of the new tariffs.
Wait-and-see approach
Gaziz Abishev believes the tariffs won’t significantly affect U.S.-Kazakhstan relations. He expects the Kazakh government to adopt a wait-and-see stance as the global response to the tariffs unfolds.
«First, we’ll see how the trade war develops. Countries will begin to respond: China, first and foremost, along with New Zealand, Australia, the U.K., Germany and Brazil,» Abishev said. «Some may concede and adjust tariffs to levels acceptable to the U.S., while others may retaliate. Through this empirical process, it’ll become clear in the coming weeks which strategy works best. I think Kazakhstan will wait it out.»
He also noted that because the tariffs target a broad range of countries, the impact on Kazakhstan’s economy will likely be limited.
Abishev highlighted the importance of looking beyond domestic consequences and considering global effects.
«The bigger question is what happens to the global economy. Some experts believe rising tariffs could slow global growth. That, in turn, could reduce hydrocarbon consumption and drive oil prices down, which would indirectly hurt Kazakhstan,» he said.
Call for clarity
Daniyar Ashimbayev said Kazakhstan will likely take a measured approach in response to the U.S. tariff hike and will seek to clarify the specifics through diplomatic channels.
«Most likely, the Ministry of Trade and the Ministry of Economy will now engage in negotiations to better understand what exactly is at stake,» he said. «…We still need clarification on which products are affected. The situation is unpleasant, but on the other hand, we have little ability to influence it. Sanctions are being imposed globally, from all directions. That’s why they end up affecting us as well.»
Ashimbayev suggested the steep 27% tariff on Kazakhstani goods – the highest in Central Asia, as other countries in the region received a 10% tariff – may be related to U.S. efforts to curb Chinese re-exports. He pointed to Kazakhstan’s long border with China and its strong trade ties with Beijing as possible reasons for the heightened rate.
However, he added that goods deemed essential to the U.S. economy are likely to be exempt to avoid contributing to domestic inflation.
«We have substantial American investment in Kazakhstan’s oil sector, especially from Chevron. It remains to be seen how this will play out in the U.S. oil industry,» Ashimbayev said. «Similar exceptions were made in the past when sanctions were imposed on Russia: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Kazakh oil to Germany, were both exempted. Sanctions are sanctions, but there’s always room for exceptions, especially for allies or strategic needs. The U.S., in my view, does not mine much uranium and still relies on global suppliers, including Kazakhstan.»
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration also noted that a significant portion of the country’s exports to the U.S. are not affected by the new tariffs, as they fall under the list of exemptions.
