Ukrainian economy shrinks by third

In 2022, the Ukrainian GDP declined by 30.4% because of the Russian invasion. Despite all the hardships of the war, it is a more positive result that was expected in the early days of the war in February 2022, according to the country’s Ministry of Economy.

In 2021, the GDP of Ukraine rose by 3.4%. In the first quarter of 2022, the rate decreased by 15.1% over the same period in the previous year. In the second quarter, the GDP dropped by 37.2%, followed by 30.8% in the third quarter.

«Last year has been the worse year for Ukraine’s economy since the first day of the country’s independence. However, the success of the country’s armed forces, government, businesses, the adamant spirit of its people, the ability to rapidly restore critical infrastructure and financial assistance from international partners didn’t let the economy collapse,» said Yulia Svyrydenko, vice minister of economy in Ukraine.

In December, the ministry’s assessment of the GDP decline was about 34%, which is better than the assessment in November (37%). At the time, the country managed to stabilize the situation in the power grid system, although the ongoing shellfire affected the mood and activity of the business, the agency said.

Earlier in the year Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal forecasted that the country’s economy may shrink by 35-40% or even more if Russia continues attacking Ukraine’s infrastructure.

In October, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasted a 31.5% decline. The regulator believes that in the second quarter of this year, the national economy will rebound by 13.9%, by 9.2% in the third quarter and by 11.3% in the fourth quarter. It is expected that Ukraine’s economy may grow by 4% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.

The final data about the GDP’s performance will be published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.