KMG forecasts sharp increase in diesel fuel consumption by 2035
As Dmitry Makeev, deputy head of KazMunayGas (KMG), told Kursiv, diesel fuel consumption is going to grow from the current 5.5 million tons per year to 8 million tons by 2035.
«We’ve conducted a marketing study and now we have a certain understanding of how the demand for oil products will grow in Kazakhstan. I can’t disclose all the details of the study for confidentiality reasons, but it’s safe to say that we know that diesel fuel consumption is going to grow to 8 million tons by 2035, while the current level of consumption is about 5.5 million tons per year… In general, we produce 5 million tons of gasoline, 5.2 million of diesel fuel, 600,000 to 650,000 tons of aviation kerosene and 750,000 tons of liquefied gas. I am talking about three oil refineries (controlled by KMG),» he told Kursiv responding to the question on how fuel and lubricants consumption in Kazakhstan may change in the future.
According to Makeev, the consumption of fuel and lubricants is going to be correlated with the growth of the national GDP and the intensity of transit transportation. For instance, any increase in transit air transportation and cargo transportation stimulates the demand for aviation kerosene and diesel fuel and leads to a shortage of these materials.
«If there is no new oil refinery or the current ones aren’t updated, we may find ourselves dependent on fuel imports after 2030. I am talking about fuel for foreign transit transportation because we have enough fuel for national operators,» Makeev said.
He also noted that the proposed projects are expected to supply the demand for fuel and lubricants at the expense of domestic production.
The modernization of the Shymkent refinery is one of the available options to boost fuel production. Once this project is done in 2029, the refinery’s capacity will be doubled to 12 million tons per year. A preliminary feasibility study has already been completed.
«We are going to expand fuel production from six to twelve million tons per year with the main focus on diesel fuel and aviation kerosene. The preliminary figures are one million tons of aviation kerosene and about 1.5 million tons of diesel fuel. All these calculations must be confirmed in a more detailed design,» KMG’s top executive said.
The oil company is reporting gradual growth in the consumption of light petroleum products by both local and transit transports. The Ministry of Energy hasn’t ruled out that the country may need to import about 300,000 tons of aviation kerosene and 700,000 tons of diesel fuel from Russia.
This year, Kazakhstani refineries are planning to produce more than 600,000 tons of jet fuel while an estimated consumption of that fuel is 900,000, according to Magzum Mirzagaliyev, head of KMG. This demand for aviation kerosene is expected to be covered at the expense of the increased capacity of the Shymkent refinery for jet fuel from the current amount of 313,000 tons to one million tons per year by 2030.
