Kazakhstan’s oil output may be lower than expected this year, Ministry of Energy is warning

According to Askhat Khassenov, deputy minister of energy, Kazakhstan may produce 89 million tons of oil this year, which is a slight decrease compared to the initial production plan of 90.5 million tons.

«Changes are possible. According to our initial plan, oil output should be at 90.5 million tons by the end of this year. However, based on the results of the first eight months of 2023, we are falling behind schedule. Of course, we will try to achieve the target, but it is more likely that the oil output will be 89 million tons,» the official told reporters.

As Khasenov noted, the estimated volume of oil the country expects to produce is changing due to maintenance operations at several oil and gas projects. If this work is completed ahead of schedule, it can boost the oil output.

«These projects will increase oil production if they resume operation just one or two days ahead of schedule. In 2023, we will likely produce 89 million tons of oil, although we were supposed to produce 90.5 million tons,» the deputy minister said.

In 2022, Kazakhstan produced 84.2 million tons of oil, compared to 85.7 million tons in 2021. On September 13, Deputy Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin reported to the cabinet that oil production increased by 6.6% over the period from January to August. He didn’t provide any absolute figures, though. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan produced 56.09 million tons of oil and gas condensate over the first eight months of this year.

On August 15, Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev told reporters that the ministry had reduced oil production forecasts for 2023 to 89.4 million tons. This means that the latest forecast by the agency is even less positive. In August, the Situational Analytical Center of the Fuel and Energy Complex under the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan reported a decline in daily oil production from 232,000 tons on August 10 to 209,300 tons on August 14 (-9.8%) due to power failure at the Mangystau Nuclear Power Plant.

In September, oil production was also unstable. For example, as of September 1, it was about 235,300 tons. On September 9, the production volume reached the month’s maximum of 247,000 tons a day. However, the output dropped to 243,500 tons the next day and to 213,800 tons on September 11. On September 12, the ministry reported oil output at 215,400 tons.