Authorities forecast lower economic growth in Almaty

The Almaty city administration is forecasting a slowdown of the city’s economic growth to 5.5% in 2024, even though Mayor Yerbolat Dossayev said earlier this year that the city’s GDP would grow by 6.5% this year.

Currently, the authorities forecast a 6.5% growth of the GDP in 2025. They want to achieve this goal by providing financial support to small and medium-sized businesses of at least $98 million per year. Moreover, they expect investments to grow by 10%: to $3.9 billion in 2024 and $4.5 billion in 2025.

«This means that the city’s economy will grow by 47.4% within two years, while Kazakhstan’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by 37.8%. In 2023, we are expecting an increase in investments by 239% compared to 2019 or by 20.6% compared to 2022. Next year, the rate will grow by 176% compared to 2019, which is going to be a 26.4% decline compared to 2023,» the Almaty city’s Department of Business and Investment said in a statement.

The Ministry of National Economy has set a target indicator for investments in fixed capital at $3.9 billion in 2023 and $4.5 billion in 2024. According to the Department of Business and Investment, 38 investment projects worth $994 million are expected to be implemented and 18 industrial enterprises with a floor of 88,000 square meters are to be built in Almaty over 2024-2025. The mayor’s office also expects the emergence of the automotive cluster with a capacity of at least 220,000 vehicles per year. Within this project, two new manufacturing sites will be built: a multi-brand factory for Changan, Chery and Haval brands with a capacity of 90,000 cars and Orbis Manufacturing with a capacity of 80,000 cars a year.

Last fall, Astana Motors signed a cooperation agreement with Chinese Chery Automobile Company, Changan International Corporation and Great Wall Motor and has already started construction of the multi-brand factory with a capacity of 90,000 cars. SaryarkaAvtoProm is planning to start production of another Chinese brand Jetour. Orbis Auto is also intending to produce cars under the Chinese brand Exeed.

The city administration also wants to expand the industrial zone of Almaty by 194 hectares, which will allow it to realize an additional seven big projects for $501 million in 2025-2026, the business and investment department said.

In early December, Almaty Mayor Yerbolat Dossayev forecast the city’s economic growth by 6.5% compared to the 5% rate forecast at the beginning of the year. He said that over the first ten months of the year, the amount of investments to fixed capital reached $2.6 billion. In September, the mayor’s office expected this rate to reach $3.2 billion this year (the target indicator is $3.9 billion).