Kazakhstan predicts a 30% increase in GDP per capita by 2030

Kazakhstan has nearly caught up with Russia in terms of GDP per capita which reached $13,300. This is quite a significant figure compared to other Central Asian countries. For instance, it is 11 times higher than the same rate for Tajikistan; 7.1 times for Kyrgyzstan and 5.2 times for Uzbekistan, according to a survey by INFOLine.

The agency’s analysts predict that this year the national GDP of Kazakhstan will rise by 13.7% per capita (as in 2023) and by 29.9% by 2028. However, according to Halyk Finance, this growth will be driven by the commodity sector and won’t improve the well-being of the population or the country’s productiveness.

Kazakhstan is ranked fourth in terms of GDP growth. Armenia is the leader with 8.7%, followed by Kyrgyzstan (6.2%), Uzbekistan (6%), Kazakhstan (5.1%), Belarus (3.9%) and Russia (3.6%).

Despite the overall economic rise, the year 2023 was tough for many EEU member states as they struggled with the budget deficits: -2.3% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan, -2.9% in Kazakhstan, -5.7% in Uzbekistan and -2.3% in Russia. In 2024, these countries may also find themselves forced to deal with the same problem. In this case, they would be required to raise taxes, strengthen their fiscal policies and cut development programs.

Last year, Kazakhstan reported no changes for its national currency, while Tajikistan and Uzbekistan reported their currencies lost 8% each and Kyrgyzstan’s currency weakened by 3.5%. Experts believe this happened due to a lower inflow of money transfers from Russia.

In February 2024, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, instructed the cabinet to secure annual GDP growth at 6% or more. Later, the Ministry of the National Economy said that this goal is achievable as the processing industry, the construction, transport sectors and agriculture can effectively contribute to the GDP increase.