IMF improves its forecast for Kazakhstan's economy. ADB's prediction remains the same

Что прогнозирует АБР и МВФ по росту ВВП в 2024 году

The ADB and IMF updated their forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2024 / Collage by Kursiv.media, photo editor: Aruzhan Makhsotova

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept this year’s forecast for the economic growth of Kazakhstan unchanged at 3.8% (as in April), while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 3.5%. In 2023, the country’s economy grew by 5.1%. Both institutions reported this in their surveys.

The ADB’s forecast for 2025 has also remained unchanged at 5.3%. According to the Asian Development Outlook for July 2024, Kazakhstan’s economy grew 3.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, driven by the booming construction sector, processing industry and services.

This year, economic growth is expected to be supported by the same drivers as last year, whereas the recovery of infrastructure damaged this spring by massive floods will facilitate sustainable growth in the construction sector. The ADB expects that the completion of the Tengiz Expansion Project in the second quarter of 2025 will significantly boost mid-term economic growth.

The inflation forecast hasn’t changed either: 8.7% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025. Last year, when Kazakhstan reported 5.1% economic growth, inflation reached 9.8%, a significant decrease from 20.3% in 2022.

The aggregated GDP of all Central Asian and Caucasus states is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025, according to the ADB evaluation (compared to 4.3% and 5% in the April forecast, respectively).

Meanwhile, the IMF has improved its forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP by 0.4 percentage points to 3.5% in 2024. However, the organization downgraded its forecast for 2025 by 1 percentage point from its April forecast to 4.6%. IMF analysts also noted that the forecast for global economic growth remained the same: 3.2% for 2024 and 3.3% for 2025.

Anti-inflation measures in the service sector in large developed economies continue to complicate the normalization of monetary policy, posing a higher risk of high base rates in the long-term perspective. The IMF predicts that in Central Asia and the Middle East, GDPs will grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, on average.