Share of oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan’s economy drops by 3.3 percentage points YoY

The share of gross value added of the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan’s GDP was 16.2% in 2023, a 3.3 percentage point (p.p.) decline compared to the prior year (19.5%). At the same time, the oil and gas industry has risen by 8.3% in absolute figures, reaching $42.4 billion, according to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan.

The primary sector’s share (crude oil and natural gas production as well as technical services in the mining industry) has shrunk by 2.2 p.p. year-on-year to 9.1% of the GDP. However, in terms of money, the rate grew by 6.3% compared to 2022, reaching $22.9 billion.

The share of the secondary sector, which includes oil refining and construction of pipelines, accounts for 1% of Kazakhstan’s economy or $2.4 billion. This indicator has slipped by 0.2 p.p. compared to the previous year but rose by 3.4% in absolute figures.

The share of the tertiary sector (trade with refinery products and transportation services) reached 6.1% of the GDP, a 0.9 p.p. decline compared to 2022 and a 12.6% increase in absolute value.

The gross value added of the non-oil sector was at 76.4% of the country’s GDP in 2023, reporting a 2 p.p. increase over the year. In terms of money, the rate grew by 3.9% to $191.3 billion. Together, the oil and gas and non-oil sectors account for 90.8% of the GDP. It is unclear what other industries account for the remaining 9.2%.

The share of the non-commodity sector accounts for 75.9% of the national economy of Kazakhstan, reporting a 2.9 p.p. increase over the year ($159.4 billion). On the contrary, the commodity sector slipped by 3.1 p.p., reaching a 16.8% share of the national economy and grew by 1.8% to $42.2 billion in absolute figures. The mining industry accounts for 12.9% of the country’s GDP ($32.3 billion). Again, if you combine the two shares, you’d get 92.7%. The remaining 7.3% of the GDP probably consists of net taxes.

As of year-end 2023, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 5.1%. However, in the first half of 2024, the economic growth slowed to 3.3%, much lower than the 6% goals the government has set for this year. In response to a request from Kursiv.media, the Ministry of National Economy said it would take some measures designed to boost the economy. Meanwhile, analysts and international organizations point out the high dependence of Kazakhstan’s economy on the commodity sector. The country’s government uses the cut-off price for oil as a benchmark for the state budget, while all tax payments from the oil and gas industry go to the budget in the form of transfers.