The fair value of Soligenix, a micro-cap pharmaceutical company, is estimated to be 800% higher than the current share price, according to a recent report by Zacks Small-Cap Research (Zacks SCR). Soligenix is developing several products, chief among which is a vaccine for the deadly, hemorrhagic-fever-causing Marburg virus. It is in the spotlight following a recent outbreak in Rwanda.
Details
Zacks SCR values Soligenix at $35 per share, nine times the last closing price (as of Friday, October 4) of $3.87 per share on the Nasdaq.
The company develops vaccines targeting multiple filoviruses, including the Ebola and Marburg viruses, which cause severe hemorrhagic fevers that are often fatal. As Zacks SCR points out, the current Marburg virus outbreak has put the focus on the development of Soligenix’s Marburg vaccine.
The outbreak and Soligenix’s opportunity
The latest outbreak of the Marburg virus started in Rwanda in September 2024. There are at least 46 cases and 12 deaths, most of them healthcare workers, the BBC has reported, citing Rwanda’s health ministry.
In early October, two people showing symptoms of the virus were isolated in Germany after they had visited a medical facility in Rwanda where Marburg virus disease patients were being treated. However, their tests came back negative, reported the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
On the day the news broke about the German cases, Soligenix stock surged 28% to $4.87 per share. Trading in the name exploded, with 2.46 million shares changing hands that day, whereas in the month prior daily trading volumes had rarely exceeded 100,000 shares. In the following days, however, Soligenix retreated, ending the session on Friday, October 4, only 2% higher than it was on October 1, before the news from Germany came out.
Context
The Marburg virus is transmitted to humans from fruit bats and then spreads through contact of broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected people, as well as contaminated surfaces and materials. The average case fatality rate is about 50%, reports the World Health Organization.
There are no approved vaccines for the Marburg virus, Zacks SCR notes, adding that “filovirus outbreaks will continue to occur, thus necessitating the need for effective vaccines.” Zacks SCR believes that Soligenix vaccines have several advantages, including extended stability at elevated temperatures. For comparison, approved Ebola vaccines require cold-chain storage.
