Kazakhstan weighs producing shale oil
Kazakhstan wants to produce shale oil in the Kyzylorda and the Ulytau regions, as reported by LS, a Kazakhstani media outlet, citing the Ministry of Energy. Preliminary estimates suggest that these oil reserves may contain 56.4 million tons of oil.
The South Turgay basin at the Karagansay site, which spans across the two regions, has been designated as a primary area for shale oil production. According to the ministry, shale oil has significant commercial potential due to the strong global demand for hydrocarbons. Implementing such projects can strengthen Kazakhstan’s export potential, diversify its economy and enhance energy security.
Many of these projects are currently in the planning and preparation stages. Their implementation will require substantial investments, including state funds, private capital and international financing. In addition to economic benefits, the projects are expected to create new jobs and increase tax revenue. The exact launch date of the shale oil production project will be announced once the preparatory work is completed and investment decisions are approved.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates Kazakhstan’s technically recoverable shale oil and concentrate reserves at 10.6 billion barrels (approximately 1.4 billion tons).
At the beginning of the year, the Kazenergy Association reported that Kazakhstan has the potential to become a major shale oil producer, comparable to countries like the U.S., Canada, Russia, China and Argentina. While the U.S. is expected to remain the global leader in shale oil production until 2029, its market share is forecast to decline by eight percentage points to 86% by 2050. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to grow by 40% (with output increasing since 2022), reaching 11.7 million barrels per day by 2030. However, in 20 years, production is forecast to drop back to 7.7 million barrels per day.
Last week, Reuters reported that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s team was preparing a comprehensive energy package aimed at bolstering the nation’s oil and gas industry. According to sources, the plan includes restoring liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, a process that had been suspended under President Joe Biden’s administration, as well as streamlining the issuance of permits for drilling oil wells on federal lands and coastal areas.
However, Trump’s energy initiatives might face resistance from oil companies themselves. According to Exxon’s board, American oil suppliers are unlikely to embrace his «Drill, baby, drill!» call. Over the past few years, shale oil producers have grown accustomed to cutting costs, a practice that is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Analysts have also cautioned against the low likelihood of a significant increase in oil production during Trump’s presidency. Oil production reached a peak of 13.4 million barrels per day in August under Joe Biden’s term, despite regulatory restrictions. However, after years of declining drilling activity, investors now want oil companies to prioritize profitability over expansion.
