Kazakhstan adjusts oil production forecast downward

Kazakhstan is planning to produce about 87.8 million tons of oil by the end of 2024, down from the previously forecast 88.4 million tons, according to Minister of Energy Almassadam Satkaliyev.

«In 2024, oil production is expected to reach 87.8 million tons. The shortfall in production has impacted oil exports. In the reporting period (January to November), 63.2 million tons of oil were exported, representing 98.3% of the volume exported during the same period last year,» Satkaliyev said at a government meeting.

On Nov. 25, Satkaliyev announced that Kazakhstan would produce 88.4 million tons of oil by the end of the year, a downward revision from earlier projections of 90.3 million tons. Oil exports were initially expected to total 68.8 million tons.

Between January and November 2024, Kazakhstan produced 80.5 million tons of oil, a 2% drop year-on-year (YoY). Production figures for major fields are as follows:

• Tengiz: 25.9 million tons or 97.9% of last year’s total volume (26.5 million tons).
• Kashagan: 15.8 million tons or 92.8% of last year’s total volume (17.1 million tons).
• Karachaganak: 11.1 million tons, a 0.9% increase YoY.

The decrease in output was primarily due to major maintenance at key fields. Specifically, Tengiz underwent repairs in May and August, totaling 50 days of downtime. Kashagan experienced a 21-day shutdown for slug catcher replacement. However, the Ministry of Energy noted that instead of the planned 39 days of repairs, Kashagan resumed full capacity ahead of schedule on Nov. 1. As a result, an additional 50,000 tons of oil were produced for each day saved, leading to an estimated increase of 350,000 to 450,000 tons in total.

Additionally, production declines were influenced by unscheduled shutdowns at the Karachaganak field, restrictions on gas intake at the Orenburg gas processing plant and planned preventive maintenance shutdowns at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Further, repair works at the second-generation plant at the Tengiz field began on Oct. 26 due to an internal steam leak. These repairs are expected to be completed by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, in the first 11 months of 2024, Kazakhstan produced 53.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, a 0.2% increase YoY from 53.7 bcm. Gas exports totaled 5.4 bcm, up 1.9% YoY from 5.3 bcm. At the same time, domestic consumption of commercial gas rose by 9% to 18.2 bcm. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) output increased by 3% to 2.75 million tons. Gas transit also grew by 21.3%, reaching 63.9 bcm.

Over the same period, Kazakhstan produced 12.3 million tons of oil products, a 1.7% increase YoY. Gasoline output rose by 2.1% to 4.9 million tons, while diesel fuel production increased by 4.3% to 4.9 million tons. Jet fuel production saw a significant 21.4% rise, totaling 680,000 tons. Between January and November, electricity production totaled 106.7 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 4.7% increase YoY.