Analysts flag billion-dollar trade data discrepancy between Kazakhstan and China
Kazakhstan and China’s trade data for 2024 show a $12.8 billion discrepancy, according to analysts from the Energy Monitor Telegram channel. China reported exports to Kazakhstan totaling $27.96 billion, while Kazakhstan’s customs data recorded only $15.21 billion in imports. The gap suggests Kazakhstan is potentially missing out on $1.5 billion in VAT deductions, not including other state duties.
The largest discrepancies are in clothing and footwear, where analysts found billions of dollars in mismatched figures. This may be due to small-scale trade, which is harder to track. A substantial discrepancy exists in automobile trade figures: China reports $1.86 billion in car exports to Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan records only $864 million, a nearly $1 billion difference. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s data reveals $424 million in imported vehicle bodies, while China reports only $6 million. Analysts believe this may be due to businesses mislabeling vehicles as spare parts.
Below is an excerpt from the summary table listing commodity groups with the largest discrepancies (Source: Energy Monitor Telegram channel).
| HS code | Commodity group | Cost, USD | ||
| Kazakhstan’s data | China’s data | Difference | ||
| 6402 | Footwear with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics | 88,574,978 | 1,071,773,678 | 983,198,700 |
| 9503 | Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys; dolls’ carriages; dolls; other toys; reduced-size «scale» recreational models | 89,582,964 | 690,316,136 | 600,733,172 |
| 6204 | Women’s or girls’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (excl. swimwear) | 148,212,713 | 1,105,854,907 | 957,642,194 |
| 6202 | Women’s or girls’ overcoats, car coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks, incl. ski jackets, windcheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles (excl. knitted or crocheted, suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers and trousers) | 122,845,843 | 718,784,754 | 605,938,911 |
The study examined 40 key commodity groups, accounting for 53% of total imports, where analysts identified a $5 billion discrepancy.
