Kazakhstan has the capacity to become a reliable source of critical raw materials and meet the growing global demand driven by the energy transition, according to the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). Experts at the center believe that nine commodity groups stand out for their export potential, including metals that Kazakhstan already exports, whereas others still have untapped potential.
According to a review by AIFC, the energy transition and the rapid development of the electric vehicle market are expected to significantly increase global demand for critical minerals, and Kazakhstan has all the necessary resources that are important for low-carbon development.
Kazakhstan has shown a comparative advantage in global exports of copper, zinc, aluminum, silver and lead. At the same time, gold, nickel, lithium and rare-earth metals are considered commodities that could grant Kazakhstan an advantage in the world market.
Metals in which Kazakhstan has an export advantage
Kazakhstan holds nearly a 5% market share in global zinc exports. In 2023, the country ranked seventh in zinc reserves, with a total of 6.7 million tons. Kazakhstan exported 70% of its zinc to Turkey, Russia and China.
Kazakhstan accounts for nearly 4% of the global copper market. In 2023, the country ranked 11th in copper reserves, with a total of 20 million tons. The three largest importers of Kazakhstani copper in 2022 were China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
Kazakhstan holds approximately 3% of the global lead market. In 2021, it ranked eighth in lead reserves with 2 million tons and 12th in extraction at 40,000 tons. Global demand for lead is expected to rise from 11.6 million tons in 2022 to 13.4 million by 2031.
The country represents nearly 2.7% of the global silver market. According to Kazakh Invest, an investment promotion agency, Kazakhstan ranks third worldwide in silver reserves, with current annual demand for the metal at approximately 26,000 tons.
Kazakhstan holds less than 1% of the global aluminum market. In 2023, it ranked 11th in bauxite reserves, with 160 million tons, and 10th in bauxite extraction, producing 4.3 million tons. In 2022, Turkey, Italy and Greece were the largest importers of Kazakhstani aluminum.
Metals with export opportunities still to be explored
Kazakhstan ranks among 20 countries with the largest nickel reserves, holding 1.5 million tons, or 2% of the world’s total. However, the country’s share in the global market remains close to zero. Annual global nickel demand is expected to rise from 3 million tons to between 3.9 million and 5.8 million tons by 2030 and further increase to a range of 4.8 million to 6.5 million tons by 2050.
Analysts at AIFC believe that, depending on the pace of green technology development, global demand for lithium could rise from 130,000 tons in 2022 to between 312,000 and 721,000 tons per year by 2030. Experts also noted that Kazakhstan’s geological services are already collaborating with companies from Germany, the U.K. and South Korea on lithium exploration and production in East Kazakhstan. In March 2023, the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources discovered a new lithium deposit in the region, with a lithium grade of 5.3% and an estimated value of $15.7 billion.
On top of that, AIFC emphasized that Kazakhstan has seen a 3.8-fold increase in rare-earth metal exports in real terms since 2020. In December 2023, the country adopted a Complex Plan on Rare-Earth Metals for 2024–2028, under which approximately $4.8 million will be invested in extraction development over five years. In May 2024, Kazakhstan’s Senate, the upper house of parliament, stated that the country’s potential rare-earth metal reserves may include around 5,000 deposits worth an estimated $46 trillion.
Earlier this March, Kazakhstan and the EU signed a €3 million agreement aimed at implementing joint projects in the critical minerals sector.
