Risky reliance: What Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian goods means

Kazakhstan’s economy is becoming increasingly dependent on Russian goods. At the same time, domestic products struggle to compete, according to analysts from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), who studied the two countries’ trade turnover in 2024.

Last year, Kazakhstan’s trade volume with Russia rose by 3% to $27.8 billion. Imports of Russian goods increased by 8%, while exports of Kazakhstani products to Russia fell by 6%.

Russian goods now account for nearly a third (31%) of Kazakhstan’s total imports. Over the past year, Kazakhstan has increased purchases from Russia, particularly in:

• Textile products (+$364 million).
• Precious metals (+$390 million).
• Chemical products (+$334 million).

Food imports grew by $129 million, while non-food goods increased by $505 million. Imports of intermediate goods, used in producing final goods and services, rose by $929 million.

Analysts say that despite the ruble’s strengthening in 2024, which made Russian goods more expensive, they remain cheaper than Kazakhstani products. Most transactions with Russia are conducted in rubles, with 77% of payments for exports and 96% for imports settled in the Russian currency.

Since early 2025, the ruble has gained another 26% against the tenge, rising from 4.8 to 6.1 tenge per one ruble. This could drive up the cost of imports from Russia. However, unless steps are taken to reduce dependence, Kazakhstan will continue purchasing Russian goods at high prices, further straining the trade balance, inflation and the foreign exchange market. Analysts noted that the impact could intensify if relations between Russia and the U.S. improve and geopolitical tensions ease.

The AFK reported that Kazakhstan’s trade deficit with Russia grew by 31% in 2024, rising from $6.6 billion to $8.7 billion. This indicates that Kazakhstan imports significantly more from Russia than it exports there.

Such a trade gap puts additional pressure on Kazakhstan’s economy. For example, the deficit with Russia ($8.7 billion) is nearly twice the size of the country’s total current account deficit ($4.4 billion), posing further risks to financial stability.