Kazakhstan’s National Fund dips into deficit amid spending surge

Kazakhstan’s National Fund has declined by 819.8 billion tenge (approximately $1.6 billion) since the beginning of the year, according to the Ministry of Finance. In early January, the fund stood at nearly $65.8 billion, but by the end of March, it had dropped to about $64 billion at the current exchange rate.

Over the past three months, the fund received approximately $1.3 billion, including nearly $223 million in March. The primary sources of revenue included:

• $500 million in corporate income tax from oil companies.
• $470 million from Kazakhstan’s share under production sharing agreements.
• Other payments totaling approximately $500 million.

At the same time, $2.9 billion was withdrawn from the fund, with nearly $900 million taken out in March. This includes:

• $2.4 billion in guaranteed transfers to the national budget to cover the deficit.
• $501 million in targeted transfers to finance national projects.

Overall, the National Fund’s balance decreased by approximately $680 million in March. According to the approved 2025 budget, Kazakhstan plans to withdraw $4 billion in guaranteed transfers and $6.5 billion in targeted transfers throughout the year.

The National Bank, which manages the National Fund, reported it sold $748 million from the fund on the foreign exchange market in March. These funds went to the national budget as transfers and to finance the Taldykorgan-Usharal gas pipeline construction project. In April, the regulator plans to sell between $950 million and $1.05 billion from the National Fund to replenish the budget. 

National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov has repeatedly spoken about excessive withdrawals from the National Fund. He said these withdrawals prevent Kazakhstan from reaching its goal of a $100 billion National Fund by 2030. In 2024, the fund maintained its size solely through investment income.