By June 2026, Kazakhstan must compensate for 1.3 million barrels per day under the OPEC+ deal, according to the organization. This estimate is based on the updated compensation plans submitted to the OPEC Secretariat by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman.
According to the released information, 63,000 barrels per day are expected to be compensated in April, 116,000 barrels in May, 126,000 barrels in July, 141,000 barrels in August, 135,000 barrels in September and 160,000 barrels in October. After that, the compensation amount will gradually decrease from 114,000 barrels in November to 36,000 barrels in June 2026.
Russia, by comparison, will have to compensate for 691,000 barrels per day by September 2025. This includes 6,000 barrels in April, with a gradual monthly increase up to 189,000 barrels per day.
The total compensation volume for all participating countries is projected at 4.572 million barrels per day until June 2026. The peak is expected in September 2025, with 520,000 barrels per day. Only Iraq is ahead of Kazakhstan in terms of compensation amount, with 1.934 million barrels per day due by June 2026.
In early April, OPEC+ member states announced an increase in oil production starting in May by 411,000 barrels per day. In May, production quotas for Russia will be at 9.083 million barrels per day, compared to 9.2 million barrels for Saudi Arabia, 4.049 million barrels for Iraq, 3.015 million barrels for the UAE, 2.443 million barrels for Kuwait, 1.486 million barrels for Kazakhstan, 919,000 barrels for Algeria and 768,000 barrels for Oman.
The announcement of adjusted production volumes upward followed an online meeting of representatives of these eight countries held on April 3, against the backdrop of an improved outlook for the oil market.
However, these increases may be suspended or canceled depending on market conditions. According to OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have reaffirmed their commitment to market stability in light of the improvements.
OPEC+ member states also emphasized that these measures would allow them to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction. Kazakhstan, whose repeated overproduction has drawn criticism from other OPEC+ members, for instance, produced a record 2.17 million barrels of oil and gas condensate daily in March, compared to 2.15 million barrels in February, significantly exceeding its quota of 1.468 million barrels per day. The deadline for Kazakhstan to compensate for its overproduction has been extended until the end of June 2026.
