Russian intention to boost export of gas to China worries Turkmenistan

According to Dmitry Birichevsky, head of the Department for Economic Cooperations under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the so-called gas alliance between Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan raises interest among some other countries because of their intention to develop their gas export to China. This statement has caused questions in Turkmenistan, which is a big exporter of gas to China, said Myrat Archayev, deputy head of the State Concern Turkmengas.

What did the representative of Russia say?

On August 11, Dmitry Birichevsky said in an interview with the RIA NOVOSTI news agency that the gas alliance might be expanded as some other countries are showing interest in this project.

According to Myrat Archayev, deputy chairman of the State Concern Turkmengas, this affects the interests of Turkmenistan.

Why did the statement of the Russian official raise questions in Turkmenistan?

As Archayev noted, the member states of the gas alliance want to boost their export of gas to China. Turkmenistan has been exporting its natural gas to China via three separate strings of the Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline built by Turkmengas and Chinese CNPC. Turkmenistan accounts for 40 billion cubic meters of gas out of 55 billion cubic meters of gas exported to China every year. The remaining fuel is supplied by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

What did the deputy head of Turkmengas say? According to Archayev, the statement by Birishevsky raises at least several questions.

«What kind of ‘expansion opportunities’ he is talking about? What are the other states that have shown interest in the alliance and what exactly is the gas alliance? We can’t see clear answers because the Russian diplomat used very vague words. I think we need this issue to be crystal clear because interests of other states, including Turkmenistan, might be affected,» Archayev underlined.

As the deputy head of Turkmengas noted, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and China have already been cooperating in the export of gas from Central Asia to China.

He also recalled that Turkmenistan uses three strings of the Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline to deliver gas from its gas field in the southern and western parts of the country. 

«All three strings of the pipeline and production facilities along it were built by the Turkmen and Chinese sides solely,» Archayev highlighted.

What did Archayev recall? According to the representative of Turkmengas, the state of Turkmenistan is the biggest exporter of gas via the Turkmenistan–China pipeline. The country provides 40 billion cubic meters of gas, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan account for just 15 billion cubic meters of gas. All these 55 billion cubic meters of fuel go to China.

«There is neither room for gas from other countries in the pipeline, nor plan for the expansion of the export scheme participants,» Archayev underlined.

Why does any change in the export scheme have to be discussed with all its participants? Archayev believes that any changes concerning amounts and schemes of the gas export via the pipeline, which the project participants have already agreed upon, must be renegotiated and approved by all states involved in the project once again. He also said that nobody approached Turkmenistan in order to discuss those changes.

«We can’t understand or accept such an approach. We see it as a breaching of international rules and practices in the gas sphere,» Archayev said.

The deputy head of Turkmengas believes that international cooperation must be based on open and clear criteria, mutual respect for each other’s interests and strict compliance with agreed arrangements.

In January 2023, some media outlets reported that Kazakhstan and Russia planned to expand cooperation in the gas sphere. At the time, Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov said that Kazakhstan would negotiate this issue with Russian Gazprom.

In 2022, Kazakhstan produced 53.3 billion cubic meters of gas, slightly more than it was expected (103.1% of the plan), while the production of commercial-grade gas reached 27.8 billion cubic meters of gas or 94% of the plan.

The country exported 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas or 85% of the plan last year. As a result of a reduction in exports, Kazakhstan was able to deliver the needs of domestic customers.

On December 21, 2022, Kazakhstan’s Vice Foreign Minister Almas Aydarov said that Kazakhstan didn’t receive any official offer concerning the gas alliance with Russia and Uzbekistan. He suggested that Kazakhstan’s participation in the project would depend on specific conditions that might be proposed by the partners.

In November 2022, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan met in Moscow and discussed the idea of the gas alliance between the two counties plus Uzbekistan. On December 12, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said that the idea of a gas alliance between Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan has yet to be discussed.

At the time, Uzbekistan said that it wouldn’t export gas via any kind of alliance or union. On December 8, 2022, Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Jorabek Mirzamahmudov confirmed that the country was taking part in negotiations with Russia over the export of gas through the territory of Kazakhstan. However, the official described it as a technical contract, not an alliance.