Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy warns that it can change forecast of oil output in the country

According to the Ministry of Energy, the country’s government is about to change the forecast of oil production downward due to problems with electricity supply in the Mangistau region.

«We are seeing that the oil output in the Mangistau region is declining due to problems with energy supply. As a result, this is going to affect the annual forecast of oil output in the country. It might be adjusted,» the ministry said.

The energy ministry has already decreased its annual forecast to 99.4% of the plan (90.5 million tons of oil). According to Shyngys Ilyasov, the official spokesperson of the ministry, Kazakhstan is still eager to comply with its obligations under the OPEC+ agreement, which has been extended to the end of 2024. Next year, the combined amount of oil output across all parties to the agreement is expected at 40.46 million barrels per day, 1.4 million fewer than today. Kazakhstan is going to cut its oil production by 78,000 barrels per day until the end of 2024, while it will produce 1,628 barrels per day this year. In 2022, Kazakhstan produced 84.2 million tons of oil.

The Ministry of Energy is going to continue to monitor how the disruptions in energy supply affect oil production in the Mangystau region. Because of a power blackout, the oil output dropped by 12,000 tons, going from 232,000 tons on August 10 to 220,000 tons the next day, the ministry said in a statement.

Last week, oil companies of the Mangystau region, which produce about a quarter of all oil in Kazakhstan, reported shortages in power due to the failure at the Mangystau Nuclear Power Plant (MAEK). The enterprise reported a twofold decline in its productivity from 545 megawatts to 245 megawatts as its two turbines were shut down.

In early July, the Atyrau Refinery was forced to suspend its operation due to failure at MAEK. At the time, many regular consumers and several oil fields run by KazMunayGas were cut from the energy supply. Given that the remaining two oil refineries in Shymkent and Pavlodar were out of operation due to overhaul, the situation with the Atyrau Refinery hit many in the country. The enterprise restarted its operation three days later, although MAEK reported problems with its power unit #1 on the same day.