U.S. Department of Energy predicts increase in oil output in Kazakhstan

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) under the U.S. Department of Energy has improved its forecast on oil and condensate output in Kazakhstan for 2024-2025.

According to April’s forecast by the American agency, Kazakhstan will produce 1.97 million barrels of oil and condensate this year compared to 1.95 million barrels forecasted in March. In the second quarter of this year, the country can produce 1.95 million barrels per day; 1.94 million in Q3 and 2 million barrels per day in Q4.

This forecast fully meets actual figures. For instance, in January, average oil output in Kazakhstan was about 1.97 million barrels per day.

In 2025, Kazakhstan will produce more oil: 2.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter; 2.09 million barrels in Q2; 1.99 million barrels in Q3 and 2.16 million barrels in Q4 (2.08 million barrels per day on average).

In general, the U.S. Department of Energy echoes expectations of OPEC as the organization also forecasted Kazakhstan’s oil output at 1.9 and 2.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 

The EIA also predicts that oil demand will surge globally driven by the U.S. and countries in Asia and the Middle East. This year, for example, oil demand in China will increase by 260,000 barrels to 16.3 million barrels; by 280,000 barrels to 5.6 million barrels per day in India; by 200,000 to 5.9 million barrels per day in the U.S. and by 140,000 to 9.7 million barrels per day in the Middle East.

The EIA also predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will reach $90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024 and $89 per barrel in 2024 on average. So far, June futures for Brent are currently traded at $89.90.

American experts also expect that this summer’s heat can drive electricity consumption up by 4% compared to last year.