US closed its uranium market to Russia but keeps it open for Kazakhstan

Mutual sanctions between the U.S. and Russia on uranium supplies will likely increase demand for products from Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s national nuclear company. However, this shift will only occur if a company emerges to enrich Kazakhstan’s natural uranium and sell it to the U.S.

In 2024, the U.S. and Russia imposed sanctions on each other, disrupting the uranium market. In the spring, President Joe Biden signed a law banning imports of Russian uranium. By the fall, Russia retaliated with a ban on uranium exports to the U.S. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer and second-largest holder of uranium reserves, has had supply contracts with the U.S. since 1999. However, according to Mukhtar Dzhakishev, former head of Kazatomprom, these contracts are limited to natural uranium, not enriched uranium.

«Russia, with its enriched uranium, has never been a competitor to us,» Dzhakishev said. But he acknowledged that uranium enrichment adds significant value. «This service is scarce and Russia holds a competitive edge in this field. Enrichment could become a bottleneck in Kazakhstan-U.S. cooperation unless new production capacity is developed. Still, there are Western companies that enrich uranium.»

Baurzhan Ibrayev, former chief nuclear fuel cycle officer at Kazatomprom, agrees that Kazakhstan cannot compete with Russia to supply enriched uranium.

«We cannot speculate whether Kazakhstan can replace Russia in supplying enriched uranium because our country only trades in natural uranium. However, demand for Kazakhstani uranium could rise if a buyer decides to purchase natural uranium, enrich it and sell it to the U.S.,» Ibrayev noted.

China could serve as such an intermediary, according to Amir Aktanov, chief analyst at Halyk Finance.

«Between 2022 and 2023, China significantly increased imports of enriched uranium from Russia and boosted its exports to the U.S. It’s similar to what India does with Russian oil — buying it and reselling it to Western nations. China has essentially done the same with uranium. The market understands that Russia’s decision to halt uranium exports to the U.S. is largely a reputational move and won’t dramatically shift the global supply-and-demand balance,» Aktanov explained.

Over the past year, Kazatomprom has reported strong profits and demand for its products remains high. Aktanov predicts continued growth in demand for Kazakhstani uranium, driven by the global shift from traditional power generation toward cleaner energy sources. As a leading player in the nuclear industry, Kazakhstan has the potential to leverage this trend to its advantage.