Analysts downgrade Kazakhstan’s economic outlook

Experts expect an increase in both the base rate and the inflation rate / Photo: Shutterstock, photo editor: Dastan Shanay

Kazakhstan’s National Bank has released the results of its latest macroeconomic survey conducted between May 14 and May 20 among representatives of analytical centers and financial organizations. Experts who participated in the survey have revised their expectations for several key economic indicators.

Inflation

The inflation forecast for late 2025 has been revised upward from 10.6% to 10.7%, and from 6.1% to 6.8% for 2027. These adjustments reflect rising inflation expectations and continued pressure on consumer prices. The inflation rate in April stood at 10.7%.

Base rate

Amid inflationary risks, analysts have adjusted their forecasts for the base rate upward. The median forecast has been revised from 15.9% to 16.3% for the end of 2025, from 14.3% to 14.5% for 2026 and from 11.5% to 12% for 2027. The current base rate stands at 16.5%.

Economic growth

The forecast for Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 has been raised from 4.7% to 5%. Meanwhile, GDP growth over the first four months of 2025 stood at 6%. However, a slowdown is expected in 2026 and 2027, with projections of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively.

Oil prices

Estimates for Brent crude oil prices have been downgraded across the entire forecast horizon. The median price is now expected to be $69.30 per barrel in 2025 (down from $75), $66 in 2026 and $66.20 in 2027. On May 28, the July Brent futures traded at $64.90 per barrel.

Tenge exchange rate

Experts have revised their forecasts for the national currency toward weakening. The expected exchange rate for 2025 rose from 510 to 514 tenge per U.S. dollar, and for 2026, from 532 to 540 tenge per U.S. dollar. The forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 550 tenge per U.S. dollar. As of May 28, the tenge traded at 512.4 per U.S. dollar.

Trade balance

Estimates for exports and imports have also been adjusted. Exports are expected to decline in 2025 from $92.2 billion to $91.1 billion, while imports for the same year are forecast at $75.1 billion, slightly lower than the previous estimate of $75.3 billion.