Kazakhstan’s economy is showing signs of overheating amid accelerating growth, loose fiscal policy and active consumer lending, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF noted that after growing by approximately 5% in 2023 and 2024, the country’s economy has continued to accelerate — to 6.5% in 2025 — driven by increased oil production, the expansion of quasi-fiscal operations and rapid growth in consumer lending.
At the same time, inflation remains high and the current account deficit is widening. The IMF believes that global uncertainty and a possible decline in oil prices could pose additional risks to the country’s economy.
IMF analysts say Kazakhstan needs a tighter and more coordinated economic policy to stabilize the situation. Moreover, the country’s monetary policy should remain tight until inflation approaches its target.
If inflation accelerates further, the regulator should consider raising the base rate again. The IMF also recommends more active withdrawal of excess liquidity, including through increased issuance of short-term National Bank notes, thereby strengthening the transmission of monetary policy to the economy.
A separate set of recommendations concerns fiscal policy and state-owned enterprises. The IMF believes a more decisive adjustment of the fiscal stance and of state-owned enterprise investment plans is necessary. According to the fund, this would help contain inflation, preserve budget reserves and achieve fiscal consolidation goals.
The IMF also identifies growth in non-oil revenues, a review of quasi-fiscal activities and strict adherence to fiscal rules as key priorities for Kazakhstan.
