Ten-billion-dollar gap: Why Kazakhstan and China’s trade statistics don’t match

According to economist Yernar Serik, trade statistics between Kazakhstan and China again failed to align in 2025, with the gap reaching $10.8 billion.

Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show that Chinese exports to Kazakhstan totaled $29.69 billion in 2025, an increase of 6.2% year on year.

At the same time, Kazakhstan’s State Revenue Committee estimates the country’s imports from China at $18.94 billion, up 24.1% from the previous year.

As a result, the discrepancy between Chinese and Kazakhstani trade statistics amounted to $10.8 billion. This figure is lower than in 2024 and 2023, when the gap stood at $12.7 billion and $9.3 billion, respectively.

According to Vice Minister of Trade Kairat Torebayev, the difference stems from differences in accounting methods. Chinese customs data include not only goods imported into Kazakhstan, but also transit shipments destined for third countries.

Serik, however, noted that China’s trade statistics with industrialized economies typically show much smaller discrepancies — generally between 10% and 15% — and in some cases even reflect a surplus in favor of importing countries.

«This is evident when looking at data for the U.S., Japan, the European Union and South Korea. In those cases, discrepancies remain within acceptable statistical margins and can be explained by delivery terms (FOB/CIF), time lags and accounting methodology. Formally, among these countries, only the Netherlands shows a significant discrepancy (71%), which is likely due to its role as a major transit and re-export hub. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan — like several other developing countries — appears to be the exception rather than the rule,» Serik said.

He added that when the gap reaches 80% to 100% or more, the issue is no longer methodological, but instead points to problems with customs administration, cost control and the motivations of foreign trade participants. According to the economist, the core problem lies in how the recipient country processes imports, rather than in Chinese statistics themselves.

In September 2025, Kazakhstan reported a widening trade deficit with China. In the first half of the year, the deficit reached $1.8 billion, 4.5 times higher than for all of 2024. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in imports from China (+22.8%) alongside a decline in exports (-10%).

At the time, Kazakhstan continued to expand imports of Chinese consumer goods, transportation equipment, metals and chemicals, while exports to China fell amid lower oil and metal prices and weakening demand in China. Experts believe that as imports from China continue to grow while Kazakhstan’s exports remain heavily dependent on commodity prices, the trade imbalance between the two countries is likely to widen further.