The National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the base rate from 16.75% to 16.25%. The decision was made at a Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Sept. 4.
This marks the third consecutive reduction in the base rate, following cuts in June and July from 18% to 17% and from 17% to 16.75%, respectively. It will remain at that level at least until the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for Oct. 23.
The regulator cited inflation, which fell below 10% for the first time since February 2025, as a key factor that allowed it to cut the base rate again.
In addition, the inflation forecast for 2026 was left unchanged, with inflation expected to stand at 9%-11%. According to the National Bank’s forecast, moderately tight monetary conditions and a strong tenge exchange rate will contribute to a slowdown in price growth. However, the 2027 forecast was revised upward to 6.5%-8.5%.
«The positive trend in current inflation and inflation expectations allowed us to reduce the base rate as part of the current decision. At the same time, amid strengthening pro-inflationary factors and risks that affected the revision of the 2027 forecast, room for further reductions is limited,» the National Bank noted.
The regulator also noted that the balance of inflation risks remains tilted toward higher inflation. The main risks are linked to expanding domestic demand amid stronger fiscal stimulus, unanchored inflation expectations and further trends in fuel prices, and housing and utility rates.
External risks stem from rising global food and energy prices due to possible increases in geopolitical tensions.
Previously, Kazakhstani financier Sultan Yelemessov forecast that the base rate in Kazakhstan could be cut by more than 50 basis points on Sept. 4, to below 16.25%.
In addition, the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) noted that the market expected the base rate to decrease to 16.5%, based on the organization’s September survey, in which 89% of experts made the same forecast, while the rest expected the rate to remain at 16.75%.
«The slowdown in annual inflation to 9.8% strengthened the conditions for easing monetary policy; however, persistent pro-inflationary risks may determine the cautious nature of further decisions,» the AFK noted.
In August 2026, inflation in Kazakhstan decreased from 10.2% to 9.8% year-on-year. The last time the indicator was below 10% was in February 2025, when it stood at 9.4%. In March that year, the indicator jumped to 10%.
