As Kazakhstan warms at double global rate, national forecasters turn to AI

Kazakhstan is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, according to meteorologists at Kazhydromet, the national weather monitoring service.

Data from the World Meteorological Organization show that 2006-2025 was the warmest 20-year period on record.

However, the rate of warming varies around the world, with some regions experiencing more rapid temperature increases than others. Between 1976 and 2025, the average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan increased by 0.40 degrees Celsius per decade.

Read also: How Central Asians beat the heat long before air conditioning.

That is roughly twice the global warming rate of about 0.18 to 0.20 degrees per decade. The year 2025 was the warmest in Kazakhstan since records began in 1941.

Kazakhstan’s continental climate accelerates warming

Kazhydromet explained that Kazakhstan’s location in the center of the Eurasian continent, far from the world’s oceans, gives the country a sharply continental climate. The limited moderating influence of the oceans, combined with the characteristics of a continental climate, contributes to more pronounced warming across the country.

As a result, temperatures in most regions of Kazakhstan are expected to be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal in October and November.

Ecology Minister Alibek Kuantyrov announced the forecast at a government meeting, noting that Kazhydromet has been using the WRF numerical weather prediction model, which incorporates elements of artificial intelligence, since the beginning of the year to improve forecast accuracy.

The model provides forecasts ranging from 48 hours to 10 days, with spatial resolutions of 2 kilometers and 6 kilometers.