Unlikely US invasion enters Canada’s strategic thinking

Canada is considering a scenario that until recently would have seemed almost unthinkable: a potential military attack by its longtime ally and close neighbor, the U.S., the BBC reported.

Last month, Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that Canada was preparing for such a possibility, while stressing that an invasion remains highly improbable. Explaining why Canada had decided to consider the risk nonetheless, he described it as a matter of «risk management.»

The discussion emerged against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated remarks about making Canada the 51st U.S. state and his use of economic pressure against Ottawa. Now, the Canadian military is modeling how a potential U.S. military attack on Canada could unfold.

The U.S. and Canada have been close allies for decades, including in military affairs. Both countries are NATO allies, jointly operate the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), and routinely share intelligence and conduct military exercises. Moreover, their military cooperation in the Arctic has intensified in recent years.

Still, the fact that such a scenario is being discussed at the highest levels of the Canadian government illustrates how significantly perceptions of the U.S.-Canada relationship have changed.

Both economically and militarily, the U.S. is much larger and more powerful than its northern neighbor. Since World War II, this imbalance has not posed a major problem for Canada, which has broadly supported U.S. international policy while benefiting from access to the vast U.S. market.

This was not always the case, however. The U.S. emerged from British colonies that rebelled against the British Crown, while Canada developed from colonies that remained under British rule. As a result, the two countries’ shared history includes periods of military confrontation and rivalry.

None of this, however, prevented the two nations from developing close cooperation. An undefended border, deep economic ties and security integration have helped Canada and the U.S. build a successful model of peaceful coexistence — one that many hope will endure for years to come.