Kazakhstan sees fifth straight year of falling births after pandemic-era peak
Kazakhstan recorded 226,990 births from January to September 2026. By comparison, around 249,300 children were born during the same period in 2025 and approximately 278,700 in 2024. This means births over the nine-month period declined by around 51,700, or 18.6%, over two years, according to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics.
The crude birth rate fell to 14.74 per 1,000 people. For comparison, it stood at 19.54 in January-September 2023, 18.47 in 2024 and 16.35 in 2025.
Birth numbers have been declining for five consecutive years. The peak was recorded in 2021, when approximately 446,400 children were born in Kazakhstan. The country recorded around 403,900 births in 2022, 388,400 in 2023, 365,900 in 2024 and 335,000 in 2025. Overall, the annual number of births fell by around 25% between 2021 and 2025. If the current trend continues through the end of the year, the figure for 2026 could fall below 310,000.
Pandemic baby boom stalls
The current decline appears to be a reversal of the pandemic-era baby boom. On March 16, 2020, Kazakhstan declared a state of emergency. Astana and Almaty, followed by other cities, went into lockdown. School and university students switched to distance learning, while a significant share of the workforce also moved to remote work. Restrictions were periodically eased and reinstated through 2021.
This period coincided with record-high birth numbers. In 2020, approximately 426,800 children were born in Kazakhstan, followed by 446,400 in 2021, marking a historic high. The latter figure was around 11% higher than in pre-pandemic 2019. The crude birth rate reached 23.5 per 1,000 people in 2021, compared with 16.43 in 2025.
However, there is no consensus on what drove the baby boom. In 2021, the Labor Ministry attributed the increase in births less to quarantine restrictions and more to the introduction of new family allowances.
After restrictions were lifted and people returned to their workplaces, birth numbers began to decline, falling below their 2019 level by 2025.
Why are fewer children being born in Kazakhstan?
As Kursiv.media previously reported, Kazakhstan’s birth rate in 2025 fell to its lowest level in 11 years. Nurzhamal Iminova, an expert at the Qazaq Expert Club, attributed the trend to several factors, including a broader global shift towards postponing parenthood. Women are increasingly choosing to prioritize education, career development and financial stability before having children. According to Iminova, the average age of mothers has risen to 29.9, while women have their first child at an average age of 25.3.
