The Ministry of National Economy has presented its forecast for the social and economic development of the country for the next five years. Kazakhstan’s population is going to grow by 250,000 people each year and will reach 20 million by 2025. However, population growth doesn’t mean an increase in the workforce, according to the labor market indicators.
The forecast is based on the population growth statistics over the past few years. For example, it took 3.5 years for Kazakhstan to increase its population from 18 million to 19 million (2018-2021). If this logic is correct, the country will reach the 20 million bar at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. Even a possible spike in migration out of the country won’t be able to affect this trend seriously.
At the same time, different demographic indicators show that the number of men and women able to work is going to decline by 2% while the share of retired people will reach 2.3 million by 2025. Employment patterns are going to change as well. The share of hired workers will increase from 76% to 77.3% while the share of self-employed will proportionally shrink.
Approximately, the average salary in Kazakhstan will grow by 7-8% a year and reach $970 by 2027. The minimal salary will be the same – about $140.
In 2021, 58% of Kazakhstan’s population were of working age. The situation when the country has more people able to work than those whom it must care for is called demographic dividend.