The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expecting that liquid hydrocarbon output in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will decrease by 25,000 barrels a day in 2022 compared to 2021 and will then increase next year.
«According to the previous estimation of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, the oil output should have been fully restored by the end of October. However, as of October 21, the urgent repair work on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil terminal has not been conducted. No new deadlines for maintenance were announced either,» the OPEC report said.
As a result, the average oil output in Kazakhstan is expected at 1.8 million barrels per day, according to OPEC.
At the same time, the cartel believes that next year Kazakhstan will be able to increase oil production by 146,000 barrels a day thanks to the output growth at the Kashagan oil field.
«Also we expect (in 2023) a minor increase in oil production in Tengiz and gas condensate output at the Karachaganak field,» the report said.
In Azerbaijan, OPEC is forecasting a decline in oil production of 10,000 barrels a day this year compared to last year. In 2023, the oil output must grow by 49,000 barrels per day, according to the cartel.
The organization has reconsidered its forecast for Azerbaijan this year because over the first three quarters the country produced less oil than projected. This year, Azerbaijan may produce about 0.7 million barrels per day on average.
In 2023, the country may increase its oil output to 0.8 million barrels a day thanks to the increase in production at the Shah Deniz oil field and the start of gas and oil production at the Apsheron gas field and the Azeri oil field, which is a part of the larger Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) project.
On the other hand, OPEC decreased its forecast for oil demand in 2022 by 100,000 barrels per day to 99.57 million barrels a day in total. In 2023, the cartel also expects that oil demand will drop by 100,000 barrels a day to 101.82 million barrels because of geopolitical tensions and strict quarantine measures in China.