Analytics worsen their outlook for inflation in Kazakhstan

Analytics believe that inflation is going to be high over the period from 2023 to 2025. This is a less optimistic outlook compared with the previous one, according to the National Bank.

In a survey conducted by the regulator experts said they expect inflation at 12.2% this year, 8.8% in 2024 and 7.2% in 2025. In February, when inflation reached 21.3% on a year-to-year basis, their forecast was slightly more optimistic: 11.8% in 2023, 8% in 2024 and 7% in 2025.

As a result, the National Bank has highlighted that the base rate increase expectations for 2023 and 2024 have risen from 15.5% and 11.4% to 15.7% and 11.7%, respectively.

«In 2025 the base rate is expected at 9% which is slightly less than it was projected earlier. In other words, the market participants anticipate the base rate remains high and will decrease gradually in the long-term,» the regulator said.

In order to get this data, the National Bank surveyed organizations such as the Applied Economics Research Center (AERC), Halyk Finance, Jusan Invest, NAC Analytica, Asian Development Bank, ACRA, Eurasian Economic Commission, Eurasian Development Bank, Institute for Economic Research, Renaissance Capital, Centras Securities, and Freedom Finance.

The regulator is expected to make its next decision on the base rate on April 7. The National Bank raised the base rate on six occasions last year from 9.75% in January 2022 to 16.75% in December 2022. In February 2023, the bank decided to leave it as is, as many experts had predicted.

In 2023, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan is likely to slow down to 11% to 13%, experts told the Kursiv edition.