Slow increase of working population can pose risks for the economy in Kazakhstan

The number of children and elderly people is rapidly growing in Kazakhstan, while its working-age population decreases / Photo: Shutterstock and Pixabay

According to the Economic Research Institute (ERI), the lowering of the share of the working population is still a trend in Kazakhstan. This is going to affect the labor market and the country’s economy.

What is the statistical data showing? As the ERI reported, even though the working population has still been gradually increasing each year in absolute figures, this process is much slower than the increase in other age groups.

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of people aged from 15 to 64 has risen this year by 9.7% (1.1 million) compared to 2010 and reached 12.3 million. At the same time, the number of children under 14 and elderly above 65 has risen by 48.7% (from 3.9 million to 5.8 million) and 51.4% (from 1.1 million to 1.7 million), respectively.

What kind of risks can this dynamic carry?

«The more rapidly the number of children and elderly grows, the lower the share of the working population is. The demographic pressure on this category is growing,» the agency said in a statement.

As of January 2023, the share of people aged from 15 to 64 was 62% in Kazakhstan, which was the lowest figure in the country since 1991.

This rate was seven percentage points lower than the same rate in 2010 when Kazakhstan reported the highest rate of the working population. In turn, the share of children under 14 grew by 24% to 29.6% and the share of elderly above 65 rose from 6.8% to 8.2%.

What is the U.N. forecast? As the ERI reported, the U.N. predicts that Kazakhstan won’t see a sharp decrease in the working population to the same extent as some countries of East Asia, Europe and North America, which are much ahead of Kazakhstan in terms of demographic transition.

When will things get better?

According to some estimates, the share of the working population in Kazakhstan will continue shrinking until 2027.

«Then, the share will grow up until 2040 when another cycle of decreasing is expected. After a peak of the working population share at 63.6% in 2040 it will gradually decline until 2060,» the agency said.

As of January 2023, the average age of a Kazakhstani citizen grew by 0.3 years or from 31.8 to 32.1 compared to 2018. The average age was growing for all categories of people: men and women, residents of cities and rural areas.

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan’s population grew by 132,500 people and reached 19.8 million as of July 1, 2023. The agency also reported that there are 468,100 more women than men in the country.

The International Labor Organization (ILO) predicts a moderate increase in unemployment in Central Asia this year as the region, like Europe, has been strongly affected by the war in Ukraine.