Two-thirds of Kazakhstanis (69.2%) do not have personal savings, while 79% of respondents failed to save money last month, according to a survey by the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
In its survey, the regulator interviewed 1,500 adults in the cities of Astana, Almaty and Shymkent as well as regional centers throughout the country.
More than half of respondents said that their financial status hasn’t changed over the last month, while a third of interviewed people noted that their finances have worsened. At the same time, 35.4% of Kazakhstanis believe that their financial status will improve in the space of a year, while almost the same number of people expect no changes for themselves. Two-thirds of the respondents reported their salary as their only source of income, while one-third said they live on public relief, stipends and pension payments.
Only a quarter of respondents said they have personal savings. The vast majority of them (66.6%) deposit their money in banks, while a third show a preference for cash. Only 20.1% of those who took part in the survey said they were investing in real estate. Two-quarters of Kazakhstanis keep their money in the national currency tenge and a third in USD. A significant portion of respondents (42.2%) reported an increase in their savings, while a third said nothing has changed for them.
About half of the respondents managed to save last month the same sum of money they save routinely. Almost half of the interviewed people (41.6%) weren’t sure what savings for them are, while 14.3% said that they consider savings a sum from 500,000 to 1 million tenge. About a quarter of respondents believe that the current moment is the right time to save money, while about the same number of people believe it is the opposite. About half (42.3%) of interviewees said the current moment is neither good nor bad for personal savings.
More than two-thirds told the National Bank they won’t take loans or buy something on credit within 12 months. A third of Kazakhstanis have no credit at all, while 29.5% have consumer loans and 18% have debt related to purchases in installments. A relatively small portion of respondents reported car loans (6.4%) and mortgages (6.9%). A third of Kazakhstanis spend more than 100,000 tenge ($227) monthly as payout for their loans.
A quarter of Kazakhstanis expect the next twelve months will be neither good nor bad for the country’s economy, while 20.5% are sure that the year will be rather good. About half of the respondents said it is neither a good nor bad time for major purchases. (24.1% said it is a bad time for major purchases.) Two-thirds of respondents haven’t made major purchases over the last three months. Moreover, a third of Kazakhstanis believe the next five years will be neither good nor bad.
Inflation expectations of the population
According to the National Bank, inflation expectations increased to 16.1% in April 2024 (14.2% in March), although actual inflation slowed down (8.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month). Perceived inflation has surged from 14.6% to 16.3%.
The survey has also shown that the share of respondents expecting a faster price increase grew to 25.1% (24.7%). However, the share of those who expect the price increase rate would remain the same rose to 46.8% (44.5%).
In April 2024, the share of respondents reporting food price increases rose to 77.9% (76.8%). In addition, the percentage of those who reported non-food price increases reached 8.1% (5.9%). Almost half of Kazakhstanis (43%) reported a moderate price increase, while a third of people said the price increase was quite sharp. Only 12.1% of respondents said they didn’t notice any changes in the indicator. A third of the survey participants reported a 20% price increase.
Concerning food products, many respondents said they noticed an increase in prices for fruits and vegetables, dairy and meat products and eggs. In terms of non-food products respondents reported an increase in prices for medicines, household detergents, clothes and shoes. Regarding paid services, the most noticeable price increase happened in the sphere of utilities, internet, mobile communication and medical services, according to respondents.
More than half of those interviewed by the regulator said that prices have been increasing faster over the past year than a year before. Only 0.1% reported a decrease in this indicator. Half of respondents expect a moderate price increase in May and 20.7% believe the price will surge dramatically this month. About half (46.8%) of respondents expect a price surge within the next 12 months at the same rate as now, while a quarter is convinced that the rate will surge much faster than it is increasing now. At the same time, about half of Kazakhstanis struggled to predict any price increase.
The consumer sentiment index dropped to 105.3 in April 2024 (109.3 in March 2024). For instance, respondents’ assessment of the country’s development perspectives for the next twelve months and five years slipped by 14.7 and 3 points, respectively. The index is the difference between positive and negative answers plus 100. The index value may vary from 0 to 200. When the index is higher than 100 points, it is a sign of positive estimates, while any figure below 100 points toward negative estimates.
Inflation expectations by professional market participants
Experts interviewed by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan believe the ongoing slowing of monthly inflation (to 0.6% compared to 1.2% over the past four years on average) can reignite the base rate reduction cycle. About 50% of respondents support this idea.
The other half of the interviewed experts are expecting the base rate to remain at the current level of 14.75% against the backdrop of the external background slipping into a pro-inflationary environment (high commodity prices, food price increase), reforms in the sphere of regulated services, negative consequences of massive floods and budget expenditures related to emergency relief. Inflation is expected to reach 8.6% in a year (9.1% under the previous forecast), while the base rate may slip to 12% per annum.
