Kazakhstan’s government anticipates that the national economy will grow by 5.6% in 2025, with an average annual GDP increase of 5.4% over the next five years. While these rates are considered relatively high, they fall short of the president’s target of 6%.
These figures were disclosed by Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov during a presentation of a draft law on the 2025-2027 state budget to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. The document is available on legalacts.egov.kz.
The draft outlines the budget’s income and expenditures under basic scenarios for the country’s development, based on an average oil price of $75 per barrel. (As of today, October Brent crude oil futures are priced at $81.40.)
Inflation for 2025 and 2026 is projected to range between 5.5% and 7.5%, and 5% and 6%, respectively, followed by a gradual decrease to 5% over the period from 2027 to 2029. As of July 2024, annual inflation stood at 8.6%.
The Ministry of Economy expects growth across all economic sectors:
- Processing industry: from 5.4% in 2025 to 6.6% in 2029;
- Mining industry: 2.9%;
- Agriculture: 5.3%;
- Construction sector: 9.3%;
- Transportation sector: 8.2%;
- Retail: 7.1%.
Oil output is expected to increase from 97.2 million tons in 2025 to 104.8 million tons in 2029.
Nominal GDP is projected to rise from $320.9 billion to $498.4 billion, which the ministry believes will ensure the fulfillment of the president’s directive to double the country’s economy.
Increased oil output and high prices on ferrous and nonferrous metals, ores and uranium are expected to drive exports from $82.3 billion in 2025 to $90 billion in 2029. Imports are also projected to rise from $61.3 billion to $67.5 billion, while the trade surplus is expected to reach $22.7 billion.
In September 2023, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the cabinet to boost the country’s economy to $450 billion until 2029. To achieve the objective, the GDP must grow by at least 6% annually.
Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth in the first half of 2024 was 3.3%. The previous year’s forecast for Kazakhstan’s socio-economic development projected a 5.3% GDP growth in 2024, with an increase to 6% by 2028. However, the June 2024 update projected that the 6% growth target would be achieved within this year.
In February, the government of Kazakhstan announced its expectation for the country’s GDP to grow by at least 5.3% in 2024. In the middle of July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook for Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2025 to 4.6%, down from 5.6% forecast in April.
