On Nov. 21, Russia used its new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), called Oreshnik, against Ukraine for the first time. Following this event, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, instructed the cabinet to take urgent measures to enhance security in Kazakhstan. Some political scientists and military experts believe that the country is preparing for the worst-case scenario: a retaliatory attack by Ukraine against Russian military facilities near Kazakhstan’s border and the potential threat of nuclear strikes.
President Tokayev has ordered the cabinet to enhance security measures in response to the escalating situation in Ukraine. All key bodies of authority — from the president’s administration and the cabinet to national security, defense and law enforcement agencies, as well as local governments — have received instructions from the president. As Tokayev emphasized, he will personally monitor the situation in the country.
«This order has a kind of refreshing effect, just in case of worst-case scenarios. What if Ukraine decides to target Russian military facilities near Kazakhstan’s border or on the Caspian Sea? We have to take necessary measures to diminish potential damage. What if they decide to hit Russia with a massive attack in retaliation for the use of ballistic missiles? In this case, this move can affect us as well. We’d better stay prepared,» Gaziz Abishev, a Kazakhstani political scientist, said.
Even though the expert does not believe a nuclear war is imminent, he underlined that the president’s administration should not overlook even the most pessimistic scenarios.
«I don’t think it will come to that point [nuclear strike]. However, responsible politicians must think it through and allow for all possibilities. They know that even when everyone understands the situation, some small steps can lead to a real zugzwang where nothing but radical decisions would help find an exit,» he concluded.
According to Aibek Baryssov, chair of Kazakhstan’s Association of Defense Industry Enterprises, Kazakhstan cannot avoid political and military turbulence.
«We’re observing how fast the war in Ukraine is escalating. After receiving long-awaited permission to strike Russia with U.S.-made long-range weapons, Ukraine has begun hitting the military targets of its adversary. Of course, that caused a reaction from Moscow. As a result, we’ve seen how a nuclear power used a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuke to hit a target within a non-nuclear-weapon state,» the expert said.
He pointed out that Russia launched those missiles from its base near the border with Kazakhstan.
«If Russia uses any nuclear weapon against any target, this will create an entirely new situation for the war. NATO is likely to immediately respond with a massive strike using conventional or even nuclear weapons, which may pose a great risk of Kazakhstan being hit by mistake. This is why I support all those peacemaking efforts by the president of Kazakhstan,» he added.
The expert also praised Tokayev’s order to enhance military and civil defense preparedness to protect Kazakhstan’s territory, population and critical infrastructure.
«First of all, we have to protect our border regions, facilities associated with critical infrastructure, decision-making centers in the capital city and regional centers, along with facilities of high socio-economic importance. We have to acknowledge that international political and military turbulence is going to affect us,» Baryssov emphasized.
Another Kazakhstani political scientist, Daniyar Ashimbaev, believes that Kazakhstan should inspect its radiation defense systems in preparation for worst-case scenarios.
«Yesterday, the spokesperson for the president of Kazakhstan said that Tokayev ordered the cabinet to take urgent measures to enhance the country’s security. We don’t have a big choice in terms of tools available, so I believe they were talking about improving air defense and ballistic missile defense to protect the country’s territory from unintentional missile strikes, inspecting emergency response systems and enhancing security measures to counter possible provocations. This is a realistic scenario, as we’ve seen many attempts to drag Kazakhstan into the current geopolitical confrontation. We also have to audit our radiation defense system for the worst-case scenario,» the expert wrote on Telegram.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov held a meeting with the cabinet to discuss Kazakhstan’s response to the situation in Ukraine following President Tokayev’s instructions. Authorities have prioritized the defense of crucial infrastructure. Kursiv.media reached out to the cabinet’s press service to learn more about which strategic facilities in Kazakhstan will receive improved protection. There was no response at the time of publication.
