Russia ramps up gas exports to Europe

Between January and November 2024, Russia increased its pipeline gas exports to Europe to 29.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), a 15% rise year-on-year (YoY), according to data from Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas giant, and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

During the same period in 2023, Russia’s pipeline gas deliveries to Europe totaled approximately 25.5 bcm. By the end of 2023, total pipeline gas exports to Europe stood at around 28.15 bcm.

Meanwhile, the cost of January futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands rose by 1.514%, reaching €48.535 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Gas prices in Europe have climbed amid concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe could disrupt Russian pipeline gas supplies.

Adding to the uncertainty, the transit contract for Russian gas through Ukraine is set to expire at the end of 2024, and no steps have been taken by the stakeholders to extend it. If the contract is not renewed, Russian gas exports to Europe will rely solely on the TurkStream pipeline via Turkey, potentially adding upward pressure on prices.

Late-fall frosty weather in Europe triggered an accelerated withdrawal of gas from underground storage facilities. In November 2024, gas withdrawals doubled YoY to 11.6 bcm, while injections into storage dropped to their lowest level since 2016, at just 914 million cubic meters, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). As a result, gas levels in European storage fell to 85.47% of capacity, 2.34 percentage points below the five-year average. By the end of November, Europe’s underground storage facilities held a total of 95 bcm of gas.