From January to November, Kazakhstani companies slightly increased their fixed capital investments (FSI) by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 1.9% during the first nine months. However, investments from companies’ own funds have been gradually declining, according to analysts from Halyk Finance, who view this trend as negative.
Moreover, Halyk Finance believes the recent acceleration in fixed capital investments is insufficient, as it lags behind last year’s growth of 14.6%. This decline is likely due to a 23.3% drop in investments in the mining sector, compared to a 1.4% increase last year, along with decreases in trade (-17%) and agriculture (-9.3%).
Meanwhile, FSI in non-commodity sectors grew by 18%, compared to 8.6% growth from January to November 2023. Metallurgy, automobile and transport industries (primarily due to infrastructural projects), along with education and real estate, showed the highest growth.
The survey’s authors highlighted significant changes in the sources of fixed capital investments. Last year, these primarily came from companies’ own funds. In 2024, however, borrowings and public funds have taken a larger share, growing from 14.8% to 20.2%.
«It is worth noting that investments made from companies’ own funds often include money from state-owned enterprises, meaning they are essentially quasi-budget funds. The decline in investments from their own funds is a negative trend that could hinder economic growth in the near future, especially considering the challenges facing the country’s budget,» the survey notes.
The authors also highlighted the slow growth of FSI compared to GDP growth. According to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.4% in the first 11 months of the year, while FSI reported only a 3.1% increase. In this situation, Halyk Finance notes, the share of FSI in GDP may decline. This indicator is already twice as low as the long-term cabinet target of 30%.
