Kazakhstani oil exports may exceed CPC capacity, experts warn

Kazakhstan’s oil exports are on the rise, raising concerns that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) may struggle to handle increasing volumes. While the CPC remains the country’s primary export route, participants in the Kashagan project have been exploring alternative options since 2024.

Experts from the Kazakhstan Oil and Gas: Facts and Comments Telegram channel suggest that if production at Kashagan and Tengiz continues to expand, the CPC could face challenges in transporting oil.

As the oil refining sector is becoming increasingly profitable, expanding domestic refinery capacity could help mitigate export bottlenecks. However, Kazakhstan’s refineries are already operating at full capacity, leaving little room for immediate production increases.

Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan has steadily increased oil exports, reporting a 13% growth since early 2025. Meanwhile, speculation about a 30% decline in CPC shipments has proven unfounded.