Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy has published plans for implementing the country’s regional policy concept for 2025-2030 on the Legalacts.egov.kz portal. The concept highlights significant economic disparities between regions, ongoing migration from rural areas to cities and the potential risk of mass protests. Below is a summary of key points from the document.
The economy of discord: rich and poor regions
Kazakhstan’s economic growth is marked by stark regional inequality. The gap in gross regional product (GRP) per capita between the Atyrau and Turkestan regions stands at 10.7%. More than half of the country’s fixed assets are concentrated in just three areas: the Atyrau region (30%) and the cities of Astana (15.9%) and Almaty (10.2%).
Western regions, despite their declining contribution to GDP, from 29.9% in 2019 to 25.9% in 2023, remain heavily reliant on mining (76%). Meanwhile, southern regions, which increased their share in GDP from 13.2% to 15.1%, struggle with low labor productivity. Their productivity is approximately $10,800 per worker, compared to the national average of $23,000.
Infrastructure on the brink
Infrastructure development across Kazakhstan has been uneven. While 98% of urban residents and 94.8% of rural residents have access to water supply, and gasification has risen to 58%, the deterioration of utility networks remains critical. The wear-and-tear rates stand at 64% for power supply, 55.9% for wastewater systems and 53.1% for heating infrastructure.
Education infrastructure is also under strain. Nearly 17.6% of schools require repairs, while the student seat shortage reached 270,100 in 2023. If unaddressed, this deficit could rise to 1.1 million by 2026.
Unemployment and protest risks
Social issues are exacerbating existing tensions. The unemployment rate in Kazakhstan’s western and southern regions is above the national average of 4.7%. In the Turkestan region, 46% of workers are self-employed. Up to 9% of residents in the south live below the subsistence minimum.
Approximately 400,000 young people (7.3%) fall into the NEET category, i.e. not in education, employment or training. In the Mangystau, Karaganda and Turkestan regions, the high concentration of NEET youth poses a risk of social instability and growing protest sentiment.
Migration imbalance
Migration patterns highlight regional disparities. Recent statistics show that 184,800 people left the Turkestan region, while 116,400 moved out of the Zhambyl region. In contrast, Astana and Almaty saw an influx of 51,500 and 43,200 migrants, respectively.
Northern regions are also experiencing population decline. Over the past five years, they have lost 40,800 residents, while the share of elderly people in the East Kazakhstan region has reached 15.6%.
Regional strategies through 2030
The policy concept categorizes regions into three groups: high-growth (Astana, Almaty and southern regions), stable (the Aktobe and Zhambyl regions) and depressed (northern regions). To ensure sustainable development, the plan proposes economic diversification, infrastructure modernization and measures to mitigate social risks and prevent destabilization.
