Analysts expect sharper drop in tenge

Kazakhstan’s latest macroeconomic review by analysts at the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) has amended the tenge exchange rate forecast to reflect its greater devaluation. In 2025, the exchange rate is expected to stand at 512.8 tenge per dollar on average, whereas the previous outlook from January suggested a rate of 489.5 tenge per dollar.

The review states that the forecast has been drawn up considering the downward trend in oil prices. The Brent crude average annual price is anticipated to stand at $74.60 per barrel, compared to the January forecast projecting $81 per barrel.

«The assumption of a $6.40 price drop is driven by increased geopolitical risks and particularly the actions taken by the U.S. president’s administration, which announced the introduction of import tariffs and duties against a set of trade partners, including Canada, China and Mexico,» the review said.

The tenge exchange rate strengthened in March but started to fall in April. Over Q1, the USD/KZT currency pair averaged 510.17 tenge per dollar. The drop in oil prices is one of the factors behind the tenge’s decline in April. Therefore, Kazakhstan’s National Bank supported the currency through transactions on the foreign exchange market, within the scope of budget transfers.

Analysts at Halyk Finance predicted that the tenge exchange rate to the dollar would range between 505 and 515 by the end of April, citing a possible weakening of the Russian ruble amid prolonged negotiations over the situation in Ukraine.