China believes Russian gas via Kazakhstan would be too expensive
According to Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui, Russian gas delivered to China via Kazakhstan may be too expensive. The official stated that a more viable option would be gas supplies via Mongolia.
«Delivering Russian gas through Kazakhstan doesn’t work because there is just one pipeline, and it already operates at full capacity. If we want to import Russian gas along this route, we’d have to build a new pipeline, which would be a costly project. Russia is evaluating this route (via Kazakhstan), but it’s not feasible. We can’t implement this project. It would be much easier to import gas via Mongolia or in the form of liquefied petroleum gas,» Zhang told Russian journalists.
In late December 2024, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that construction had begun on a gas pipeline from Russia to China through Kazakhstan. The proposed pipeline was expected to have a capacity of 45 billion cubic meters per year, with 35 billion cubic meters intended for China and 10 billion cubic meters for Kazakhstan’s domestic needs.
Kazakhstan plans to meet gas demand in its northern and eastern regions through this transit pipeline. QazaqGaz, the national gas company, has stated that industrial and energy sector entities in these regions are ready to purchase around 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
As a result, Kazakhstan formally declared its interest in this volume. However, these calculations did not account for the potential gasification of three coal-fired thermal power stations in Kokshetau, Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey that Russia plans to build. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy has noted that transitioning these stations from coal to gas is a plausible scenario and is currently under consideration.
Another unresolved issue is the price at which Russia will sell gas to Kazakhstan. Former Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev, now head of the Nuclear Energy Agency, has suggested that the price would be «reasonable» for Kazakhstani consumers. However, considering that retail gas prices in Kazakhstan are significantly lower than in Russia, and taking into account pipeline construction costs and interest on loans that will be included in the final tariff, pricing remains a critical concern for Kazakhstani end users.
In late November 2024, during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan, he referred to the gas pipeline from Russia to China via Kazakhstan as a promising and beneficial project. He also pledged to increase Russian gas exports to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Gazprom has shifted its focus from European clients to Asian markets, particularly China. However, China has not matched Europe’s former import levels, leaving a gap in Russia’s energy export balance. This is part of the reason Russia is also expanding its exports to Uzbekistan. For Kazakhstan, which also exports gas, China remains its sole foreign market.
