The end of the oil age is already looming for Kazakhstan, which means that the country must speed up its transformation process. According to Almas Chukin, a Kazakhstani economist, a serious discussion of national finance and economic policy should begin soon.
He mentioned that the National Fund has already reported a significant drop in tax revenue. If the price of Brent Crude were to decrease to $60 per barrel by the end of the year, the fund would receive less cash inflow than it is due.
«The 2025 to 2027 budget was planned based on a price of $75 per barrel (Brent Crude). As we are going to sell nearly 700 million barrels per year, a shortfall in revenue of $15 per barrel means that we wouldn’t receive $10.5 billion overall. This is the uppermost profitable part, serving as a corporate income tax base. In this situation, production sharing agreements might be helpful due to less dependence on revenue. It’s hard to predict, but we could receive 2 to 3 million tenge less, and if that happens, we would be forced to boost a transfer,» the expert said, citing transfers from the National Fund to the state budget.
As Chukin noted, only the customs fee on crude oil exports goes directly to the budget, while all other revenue from oil production (non-rents, corporate taxes, special taxes, etc.) is accumulated in the National Fund first and then reinvested or partially allocated to the budget through annual transfers.
In early May, Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ had agreed to boost oil production in June, accelerating the supply rebound for the second consecutive month. The oil cartel’s leaders consider these measures as punishment for countries that exceeded their quotas. Kazakhstan is among them. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy denied any external pressure, saying that the country had adjusted its oil output on its own and that there was no pressure on the country.
Since early 2025, the oil price has declined by 15.3% to $64.28 per barrel.
Almas Chukin is a managing partner of Visor Kazakhstan, part of Visor International DMCC. In 2023, he was added to Forbes’ list of the 50 most influential businessmen in Kazakhstan. In May 2024, he was appointed chair of the board of directors at Halyk Bank Kyrgyzstan, which was acquired by a consortium of investors from Visor.
