Fiscal disappointment: Kazakhstan falls short of budget goals

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy reported that the government failed to meet its 2024 national budget goals, particularly in reducing the non-oil deficit, which excludes revenues from the oil and gas sector. The ministry attributed the shortfall to unexpectedly high revenues from the oil export duty.

The government’s long-term fiscal strategy, outlined in its public finance management concept through 2030, targets a reduction of the non-oil deficit to 5% of GDP by the end of the decade. A milestone of 7.9% of GDP had been set for 2024, but the actual figure came in slightly higher, at 8% or roughly $22.6 billion.

Preliminary GDP data showed the economy was slightly smaller than expected, totaling nearly $286 billion instead of the projected $287 billion. Final GDP figures will be published in August and may be subject to revision.

The overperformance in oil export duty revenue — $3.4 billion versus the planned $2.9 billion — was cited as a key reason for missing the non-oil deficit target. This duty is the only oil-related revenue that flows directly into the national budget rather than the National Fund.

Despite this deviation, the overall budget deficit, which includes all revenues and expenditures, remained within expectations. The 2024 budget deficit was 2.7% of GDP, better than the 2.9% originally projected in the public finance management concept.

Looking ahead, Kazakhstan’s national budget law for 2025-2027 sets revenues at approximately $41.7 billion for 2025, down from $45.8 billion in 2024. Expenditures are projected to rise to nearly $49 billion, up from $50.3 billion, resulting in an expected budget deficit of about $8.7 billion or 2.7% of GDP.