WB lowers forecast for Kazakhstan, leaves it intact for other Central Asian countries

The new World Bank (WB) forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is 0.2 percentage points lower than the January estimate. The decline was the most significant among Central Asian countries, according to the organization’s report. More generally, the WB expects Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2025 to reach 4.5%.

Nevertheless, expectations for GDP growth this year increased by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 3.6%. In 2027, the WB expects the country’s key economic indicator to grow by 3.5%. The bank’s estimates for 2027 were published for the first time.

On the other hand, the 2025 GDP forecast for Uzbekistan increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%, remaining at the same level for 2026. Expectations for Tajikistan in 2025 increased by 1 percentage point (to 7%), while the 2026 forecast decreased by 0.1 percentage point.

The most significant changes affected the GDP forecast for Kyrgyzstan. For 2025, the WB’s expectations increased sharply by 2.3 percentage points, reaching 6.8%. The forecast for 2026 also rose by 1 percentage point, to 5.5%.

Another country with lowered GDP growth forecasts was Russia. In 2025, the country’s GDP growth is expected to reach 1.4%, which is a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous forecast. The forecast for 2026 is 1.2% (+0.1 p.p.). The forecasts for China remain unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 and 4% for 2026.

In May, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy announced that the country’s GDP grew by 6% from January to April, marking an acceleration from the first three months, when the figure stood at 5.8%.