KMG expects Kashagan output to rise, expanding ties with Eni

Kashagan, the largest oil field in Kazakhstan’s part of the Caspian Sea, is set to produce 18 million tons of oil in 2025, according to KazMunayGas (KMG, a subsidiary of Samruk-Kazyna), a slight increase over the previous production forecast of 17.8 million tons.

«The Kashagan output reached approximately 7.7 million tons of oil in the first five months of the year. The plan for 2025 is set at 18 million tons,» the company said in a statement.

In addition, KMG has also updated its forecast for another oil field, Karachaganak, increasing expected production from 10.78 million tons of oil and 24.7 billion cubic meters of gas to 11.14 million tons of oil and 25.57 billion cubic meters of gas. From January to May, the field produced 4.8 million tons of oil.

Separately, KMG CEO Askhat Khassenov has met with Luca Vignati, upstream director at Eni SpA, in Astana to discuss current status of the North Caspian and Karachaganak project implementation, Kazakhstani personnel development, the construction of a hybrid power station and expanded cooperation in geological exploration.

In particular, Khassenov highlighted the importance of joint efforts in full-scale field development and increasing the share of Kazakhstani employees at both North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) and Karachaganak Petroleum Operating (KPO). For instance, the workforce localization program for 2020–2025 has been proposed for extension until 2030.

Among the new areas of bilateral cooperation is geological exploration. In 2025, Eni was invited to a road show where KMG presented its high-potential projects. These sites are currently under evaluation.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy reported earlier this week that the plans to build a gas processing plant with a capacity of 4 billion cubic meters of gas at the Karachaganak were discontinued. The cabinet could not agree on the financial terms proposed by foreign investors, who demanded an additional $1 billion in construction costs. However, the arrival of one of Eni SpA’s top managers involved in Karachaganak and Kashagan may indicate a renewal of negotiations.

In late May, Bloomberg, citing its sources, reported that the international consortium had proposed raising the GPP’s estimated development cost to $6 billion. Moreover, the group reportedly requested Kazakhstan cover $1 billion in extra expenses to ensure the project’s commercial viability.

Karachaganak holds an estimated 1.2 billion tons of oil and 1.35 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The field is being developed under a 40-year PSA signed in 1997 by an international consortium that includes Shell (29.25%), Eni (29.25%), U.S.-based Chevron (18%), Russia’s Lukoil (13.5%) and Kazakhstan’s state-owned KazMunayGas (10%).

The NCOC consortium includes several key stakeholders: KMG Kashagan B.V. (16.877%), Shell Kazakhstan Development B.V. (16.807%), Total EP Kazakhstan (16.807%), Agip Caspian Sea B.V. (16.807%), ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Inc. (16.807%), CNPC Kazakhstan B.V. (8.333%) and Inpex North Caspian Sea Ltd. (7.563%). NCOC has invested approximately $60 billion in the project.

In late February, then-Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev (the current minister is Yerlan Akkenzhenov) stated that Kazakhstan planned to increase its oil exports from 68.6 million tons in 2024 to 70.5 million tons in 2025. This increase is expected in connection with the implementation of expansion projects at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oil and gas field. The production plan for 2025 includes 34.8 million tons at Tengiz (up from 27.8 million tons in 2024), 17.9 million tons at Kashagan (up from 17.4 million), and 12.4 million tons at Karachaganak (up from 12.2 million).