The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its inflation forecast for Kazakhstan in 2025, revising its earlier estimate of 8.2% to 10.2%, according to the bank’s July 2025 Asian Economic Outlook.
The adjustment comes amid higher-than-expected inflationary pressure in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan, despite the National Bank’s tight monetary policy, inflation reached 10.1% in the first five months of 2025 — up from 9.0% during the same period last year — largely due to rising utility costs.
ADB also raised its inflation forecast for Kazakhstan in 2026 from 6.5% to 8.4%.
Despite the worsening inflation outlook, ADB is more optimistic about Kazakhstan’s economic growth. It upgraded its GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1% for 2025, and from 4.1% to 4.3% for 2026. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected government spending on capital investments and social services, as well as the earlier-than-anticipated launch of the Tengiz oil field expansion project.
«On 31 May 2025, OPEC+ raised oil production for a third consecutive month, further bolstering growth prospects for Kazakhstan as it operates at maximum available capacity,» the ADB report noted. Other institutions have also raised their inflation forecasts for Kazakhstan.
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development now projects 2025 inflation at 10.9%, up from its previous estimate of 10.6%. Halyk Finance revised its forecast from 10% to 11% in early July. The Applied Economics Research Centre expects inflation in July to reach 11.9%.
