China’s driverless taxi fleet could reach 300,000 by 2030, experts say

UBS Investment Bank predicts that China’s robotaxi fleet in the country’s four top-tier cities could expand to 300,000 vehicles by 2030, driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and the highly competitive electric vehicle (EV) market, the South China Morning Post reported.

According to Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at UBS, the total number of driverless taxis on the Chinese mainland could reach 4 million by the late 2030s, fueled by strong consumer interest in new technologies.

Gong highlighted the potential profitability of robotaxis, noting that replacing the current fleet of 2 million taxis and 5 million ride-hailing vehicles with autonomous alternatives could generate $183 billion in annual market value. He also pointed out that declining production costs for autonomous EVs are a key growth driver, with the cost of a self-driving taxi expected to drop below 300,000 yuan ($41,935).

The media outlet also noted that this optimistic outlook aligns with a recent estimate by Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC), which projects that driverless cabs could capture 6% of China’s total taxi market, potentially reaching an annual market size of $40 billion. However, HSBC did not specify the timeline for operators to achieve this milestone.