Nobel Peace Prize scandal: Secret winner leaked, investigation launched

The Nobel Institute has launched an internal investigation after a suspicious surge in bets on Venezuelan opposition politician María Corina Machado as the future Nobel Peace Prize laureate. This was confirmed by the institute’s head, Christian Berg Harpviken, in comments to Aftenposten.

Suspicious increase in bets

According to Deutsche Welle, bets on Machado on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, soared hours before the laureate was officially announced. Her odds of winning rose from 3.75% to 72.8% just two hours before the results were revealed.

One reported bet totaled $67,000. Until then, Machado was not among the favorites and was not considered a contender.

Harpviken said the situation suggests a possible «digital leak,» though he did not specify who might have had access to the information. However, Norwegian media reported that only five people could have known the laureate’s name in advance.

Who Is María Corina Machado?

María Corina Machado is a leading figure in Venezuela’s opposition to President Nicolás Maduro. In 2024, she was barred from running in the presidential election. After that, opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia ran in her place.

Machado dedicated her award to U.S. President Donald Trump and to the people of Venezuela. The Nobel Committee received 338 nominations for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.