Mystery trader profits after bet on Maduro’s removal

An unidentified trader earned about $410,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office, Reuters reported.

The trader placed the bets on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to wager on real-world events. Initially, the bets were valued at around $34,000, reflecting low expectations of Maduro’s removal. However, their value surged after reports emerged that the U.S. military had captured Maduro over the weekend, according to Polymarket data.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket offer yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world events, including political and economic outcomes. These contracts can cost just a few cents but pay out $1, allowing traders with early or privileged information to generate large profits quickly.

Meanwhile, news of the U.S. operation against Maduro lifted financial markets. Major stock indexes rose, oil prices climbed and energy stocks posted strong gains. Bonds issued by the Venezuelan government and state oil company PDVSA also surged by nearly 30%, as investors anticipated a major sovereign debt restructuring.

In September, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Polymarket to resume operations in the U.S. following its acquisition of a licensed derivatives exchange.

However, recent developments surrounding the Maduro-related trades have raised concerns among some U.S. lawmakers about possible insider trading. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said he plans to propose legislation that would prohibit lawmakers, elected officials and federal employees from betting on prediction markets where they could have access to non-public information.