Kazakhstan’s CPC oil exports see 45% decline

Exports of Kazakhstani oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) saw a significant drop in January 2026. According to Bloomberg, shipment volumes fell around 45% from the planned level due to a combination of factors, including bad weather, protracted maintenance, and the consequences of unmanned aerial vehicle attacks.

Traders say that between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of CPC Blend are expected to be exported in January. Of the initial plan of 45 shipments, at least 21 were cancelled. The supply shortage has already resulted in a price increase — Kazakhstani oil is trading at a premium for the first time in over a year. Recent deals showed a $1.2 premium per barrel to the benchmark Dated Brent.

The cause of failure: weather and war

The principal issue is the operation of the oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Kazakhstan requires two single-point moorings (SPMs) for a full load; however, currently only one device is operating, and that with irregularities.

Storms have halted loading in recent weeks. The second facility experienced delays due to maintenance. The third mooring (SPM-2) was damaged in late November 2025.

Threat to production

The situation has become critical. Reportedly, the CPC has stopped accepting oil from producers due to the oil storage tanks being full.

Kazakhstan extracts around 1.8 million barrels a day. Without a fully functioning CPC, the country is capable of exporting only half of this volume. The prolonged idling imposes a risk of forced reductions in extraction at deposits.

CPC is the primary export route for Kazakhstan’s oil, running through Russia to Novorossiysk, a Russian port with a major oil terminal on the Black Sea. The shareholders are Kazakhstan, Russia, Chevron and ExxonMobil.

The CPC infrastructure in the Black Sea has become a recurring target amid the ongoing conflict. Incidents were reported in February, September, and November 2025, with the most recent major attack occurring on Nov. 29. Naval drones disabled the SPM-2 unit. In addition, throughput via the CPC pipeline has declined due to reduced Russian supplies — around 150,000 barrels per day — following drone strikes on Lukoil platforms in the Caspian Sea.