The resumption of operations at the CPC Black Sea terminal and the expected restart of oil production at Tengiz have pushed oil prices lower. Positive news about the recovery of Kazakh oil supplies was strong enough to overshadow concerns over the winter storm that hit a large swath of the U.S., Bloomberg reported.
What’s happening to prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped after a 2.9% jump on Friday — its largest gain in two weeks — settling below $61 per barrel.
The decline was driven by the reopening of a key Black Sea export terminal that handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude shipments. Expectations of a production restart at the giant Tengiz field have also added to market optimism.
The U.S. factor: The winter storm and Trump’s foreign policy
Fresh crude volumes from Kazakhstan reassured investors, who had been assessing the damage caused by the severe winter storm in the U.S. Low temperatures and strong winds forced several companies, including ExxonMobil’s mega-refinery in Baytown, to curtail operations. Diesel prices rose to their highest level since November amid increased heating demand. However, the full extent of the disruptions remains unclear.
At the same time, tensions in the Middle East persist after President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy the U.S. Navy to the region fueled speculation about a potential attack on Iran and possible risks to the country’s oil industry.
Forecasts and OPEC+
Despite geopolitical risks, markets remain concerned about a potential oversupply due to rising production in North and South America.
«The constant stir in geopolitics is keeping risk premiums alive. However, the broader market remains cautious, with production growth from the U.S. and other major exporters outpacing demand growth,» said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte in Singapore.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ delegates said the alliance is likely to keep current production plans unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, as the group prefers to pause output increases during the seasonal decline in consumption.
